A new U.S. congressional report is raising eyebrows in Washington, warning that China’s military could move to choke off Taiwan in just a few hours—and pivot to a full-scale attack with almost no notice.
The warning comes from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s massive annual report, a 700-page deep dive released Tuesday. One entire chapter zeroes in on Taiwan, and its message is blunt: even though there’s no sign Beijing is preparing to attack right now, the U.S. and its allies can no longer assume they’ll have plenty of time to react if things suddenly go south.
A military machine in motion
The report paints a picture of a Chinese military that’s constantly on the move. Near-daily flights. Naval maneuvers. Surprise drills that look more and more like dress rehearsals for a blockade—or worse.
Commission Vice Chair Randy Schriver said China’s ramping up its capabilities at a startling pace, unveiling everything from new landing barges to the world’s largest amphibious assault ship. Add in new hypersonic missiles built to target U.S. forces, and the trend becomes hard to ignore.
And the numbers? They’re striking. Adm. Samuel Paparo, who heads U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, testified that China’s military pressure on Taiwan jumped 300% last year. By early October, Taiwan had logged 3,056 PLA aircraft entering its air-defense zone—about a third more than the same time in 2024.
The constant activity, the report warns, could blur the line between drills and the real thing, potentially giving Taiwan and the U.S. very little time to respond if Beijing decides to make a move.
Beijing says one thing—and signals another
Publicly, China keeps insisting an invasion isn’t on the table anytime soon. But inside China, the message looks different — state media and propaganda aimed at domestic audiences increasingly hint that some kind of action could be coming.
President Xi Jinping has repeatedly rejected speculation that 2027 or 2035 are “invasion deadlines,” telling President Joe Biden as much back in 2023. Still, Xi’s often-repeated line—that the Taiwan issue “should not be passed down from generation to generation”—has analysts wondering whether he intends to settle the matter during his own leadership.
The report highlights three years that keep coming up in intelligence assessments and expert analysis:
2027: The PLA’s target to be fully ready for an invasion—and the military’s 100th anniversary.
2035: China’s deadline for completing military modernization, including a bold plan to build a high-speed rail link to Taiwan.
2049: The 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, the symbolic milestone by which Beijing hopes to achieve “national rejuvenation,” including what it calls “reunification” with Taiwan.
None of these dates are officially acknowledged by China, but they shape much of the Pentagon’s long-term planning.
Battles in cyberspace and online narratives
China’s pressure campaign isn’t limited to jets and ships. The report outlines a widening use of cyberattacks, online disinformation, espionage, and economic coercion aimed at wearing down Taiwanese society—and shaking its confidence in U.S. support.
It even mentions a planned attack last year targeting Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim, part of what Beijing frames as action against so-called “Taiwanese separatists.”
Taiwan’s economy proves resilient
Despite China’s trade pressure, Taiwan’s economy continues to hold strong. The report notes that Beijing has steered clear of targeting TSMC or the wider tech supply chain—suggesting that China knows a blow to global chip production would hit everyone, including itself.
Taiwan’s government has been moving to bolster its defenses, increasing military spending, buying new equipment, working more closely with U.S. forces, and rolling out President William Lai’s “whole-of-society resilience” plan to prepare civilians for everything from cyberattacks to misinformation.
A shrinking margin for error
The report ends on a sobering note — China’s military is getting faster, stronger, and more sophisticated. If a crisis erupts, the U.S. and Taiwan may have far less time to react than they once believed.
War isn’t imminent, the commission stresses—but the buffer to prepare for one is getting thinner by the day.
