SINGAPORE: The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced on 12 Aug 2025 that Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 has been raised to between 1.5% and 2.5%.
This is up from the previous range of 0% to 2%.
The revision follows a 4.4% year-on-year expansion in the second quarter, slightly above the advance estimate of 4.3%.
First-quarter GDP grew by 4.1%, bringing first-half growth to 4.3% compared with the same period in 2024.
According to MTI, the stronger-than-expected performance in the first six months of the year played a significant role in the upgraded forecast.
Upgrade follows 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs
This marks the second time in 2025 that MTI has revised its forecast.
The initial projection, made earlier in the year, placed growth between 1% and 3%.
However, in April it was downgraded following the announcement by US President Donald Trump of a global baseline tariff of 10%, alongside reciprocal tariffs on multiple economies.
MTI maintained the lower range of “0.0% to 2.0%” in May, citing the potential impact of these tariffs on major economies.
The latest upgrade comes after a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, during which most advanced and regional economies performed more robustly than anticipated.
MTI stated that the suspension delayed potential negative impacts and allowed for frontloading in trade, giving a short-term lift to production and exports.
However, MTI noted that the improved first-half results do not eliminate the challenges ahead.
Outlook for second half remains cautious
While acknowledging the strong early performance, MTI warned that the outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains uncertain.
The ministry expects a softening in both global and domestic economic conditions in the coming months.
“Singapore’s economic outlook for the rest of the year remains clouded by uncertainty, with the risks tilted to the downside,” MTI stated.
It added that the forecast considers both the resilience shown in the first half and the likely slowdown later in the year.
MTI emphasised that it will continue to track changes in global and domestic economic conditions and adjust its forecast if necessary.
The ministry highlighted the importance of remaining vigilant amid volatile trade policies and shifting market sentiment.
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