A surge in opium poppy cultivation across war-torn Myanmar is quietly reshaping global drug routes, filling the hole left by Afghanistan’s dramatic fall in heroin production. The findings come from a new United Nations report released Wednesday—one that paints a sobering picture of a country where conflict, desperation, and lack of opportunity are driving farmers deeper into the illicit economy.
The Myanmar Opium Survey 2025, published by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) featured in a recent Euronews story, shows just how quickly the landscape is shifting. For a lot of people residing in rural Myanmar, opium grounds have become the only dependable and unfailing source of revenue as armed conflict continues to overwhelm already-distressed communities.
The boom comes at a time when Afghan opium supplies have collapsed under the Taliban’s post-2021 cultivation ban. That vacuum is opening new doors for traffickers, and early signs suggest Myanmar-sourced heroin is starting to appear in markets across Europe. Several small but telling seizures involved passengers flying from Southeast Asia—a hint that a new route could be taking shape.
“Myanmar stands at a critical moment,” said Delphine Schantz, UNODC’s representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific. “This expansion shows how deeply the opium economy has re-established itself—and how much further it could grow.”
The human cost behind the numbers
For farmers, these aren’t abstract statistics. Opium, which can be transformed into morphine and heroin, has become a lifeline for families cornered by both violence and poverty. Since the military toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in 2021, fighting has spread across the countryside, leaving many communities cut off, jobless, and struggling simply to survive.
Fresh opium now sells for around $329 (€281) per kilogram—more than double what it was worth just five years ago. With legitimate work scarce, the calculation becomes painfully simple: grow poppies or go hungry. The UN estimates the entire opium economy is now worth as much as $1.05 billion, representing 1.4% of Myanmar’s GDP.
Despite a 13% drop in yields—partly due to heavy fighting in key farming regions—the sheer expansion of cultivated land pushed total output slightly higher, to about 1,010 metric tonnes. It’s a small increase, but enough to reverse last year’s dip and extend a trend that began soon after the civil war erupted.
“Farmers are being pulled back into poppy cultivation by conflict, the need to survive, and rising prices,” Schantz said. “Without real alternatives, this cycle of dependency will only deepen.”
A drug trade on the move
Europe hasn’t yet seen a flood of Myanmar-made heroin, but UNODC officials say the warning signs are clear. With Afghanistan’s output drying up, demand is shifting—and Myanmar is stepping into the gap.
The report also underscores Myanmar’s role as the world’s largest methamphetamine producer, a status built on vast industrial operations that churn out pills and crystal meth distributed across Asia and the Pacific. Much of this industry is entrenched in the Golden Triangle, a rugged border region where weak government control and powerful militias have long made illegal drug production a way of life.
As Myanmar’s civil war grinds into its fourth year, the illicit economy is becoming more deeply woven into everyday survival. The UN’s warning is blunt — unless the world pays attention to the human realities driving these choices, Myanmar’s drug trade may be on the brink of a transformation with consequences far beyond its borders.
