Iran’s parliament has voted to push for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to state media, escalating tensions in the wake of a US military strike on three of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites. The final decision now rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
This latest development follows an order by US President Donald Trump on 21 June, 2025, to attack Iranian nuclear targets. The move has drawn Washington deeper into an intensifying regional conflict and sparked fears of retaliatory measures from Tehran.
US Vice President JD Vance reacted on Sunday by warning that closing the strait would be “suicidal” for Iran, given that “their entire economy runs through the Strait of Hormuz.”
About 20% of the world’s oil and gas is transported through this strategic waterway, making any disruption potentially catastrophic for global markets.
While Iranian leaders have not confirmed their intent to close the strait, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated, according to Mehr News, that “a variety of options are available to Iran.”
He avoided directly addressing the strait but criticised the US for using threats instead of diplomacy.
Hours before the US airstrikes, Iranian General Mohsen Rezaei, a key member of the Supreme National Security Council, appeared on state television warning that Tehran might close the strait if the US engaged in military conflict.
The strait is not only crucial for global energy flows but also for Iran’s own economy. Iran exported over 1.3 million barrels of oil per day in 2023, largely through this waterway. Major buyers include China, with Iran relying heavily on these exports for revenue.
Energy analysts have sounded alarms about the potential consequences. JPMorgan Chase labelled a strait closure as a “worst-case scenario,” estimating that oil prices could soar to US$120 per barrel and push US inflation to 5%.
Despite the alarming rhetoric, some experts remain sceptical.
Bloomberg energy columnist Javier Blas noted that Iran often uses low-ranking officials to float such threats as a means of unsettling markets, rather than following through. Closing the strait would, he argued, hurt Iran more than it would benefit it.
So far, only one refinery in southern Tehran has been hit, reportedly by Israeli forces on 15 June, leaving most of Iran’s oil infrastructure intact.
The Trump administration, while monitoring developments closely, has indicated that it does not expect Iran to go through with the closure.
Vice President Vance reiterated this on NBC, saying, “If they want to destroy their own economy and cause disruptions in the world, I think that would be their decision… but why would they do that?”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the sentiment, warning that shutting the strait would be a “terrible mistake” and suggesting that the US retains “options to deal with that” if necessary.
The situation remains fluid, with both military and economic implications being watched globally. Iran’s final decision will likely hinge on further developments in the regional conflict and the perceived costs and benefits of such a provocative move.
As of now, global oil markets are bracing for the possibility of disruptions, though history shows Iran has often stopped short of fully closing the Strait of Hormuz in similar standoffs.
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