SINGAPORE: On Thursday (Feb 26), Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said that with Singapore’s citizen population growing by only 0.7 last year, it may be that by the early 2040s, the citizen population will begin to shrink.
The city’s total fertility rate (TFR) reached a new low of 0.87 in 2025. In 2023 and 2024, it was at 0.97. Ideally, the TFR should be around 2.1 for developed countries in order to maintain a stable population. This value is known as the replacement level.
The last year that Singapore’s TFR was at 2.1 was in 1975. Since 1976, it has been below replacement level.
DPM Gan added that resident births have declined to around 27,500, which is the lowest on record. Importantly, marriage rates have also dropped, and married couples are having fewer children or none at all.
“If no new measures are taken, our citizen population will start to shrink by the early part of the 2040s,” he said, though he added that “we cannot give up.”
Nevertheless, he underlined the gravity of the situation by calling it an “existential challenge,” given Singapore’s rapidly ageing society. As of last year, one in five citizens was aged 65 or older. In 2015, the figure was one in eight.
He added that having low fertility and rapid ageing would slow Singapore’s economic growth, as well as add to healthcare and social spending. It also adds to the burden on households and has an impact on national security and defence needs.
“This raises the deeper question of what Singapore will be 50 or 100 years from now — will we remain vibrant, liveable, and relevant? Will we exist?” DPM Gan asked.
The stark reality of the further decline in Singapore’s fertility rate was greeted with sobriety by commenters online.
“Seeing the numbers decline is truly heartbreaking,” one wrote.
While they added that some couples struggle with fertility issues, others noted that a bigger problem for many is high living costs, which causes them to choose to have fewer or no children.
“In today’s economy, working full-time is a financial necessity, but the five-day grind leaves very little room for family. By the time the weekend arrives, we are so drained that Saturdays are often spent recovering rather than being fully present with the people we love. The time cost is so high that family life becomes a secondary priority, squeezed into just two days.
In short, Singapore’s high-pressure work culture—with its physical and mental toll, a 44-hour work week (or longer in practice), limited public holidays, high cost of living and rising burnout—does not create conditions that are conducive to family expansion,” wrote a Facebook user.
“Singapore’s fertility challenge… reflects deeper structural stress — high cost of living (super stressful), sandwich generation pressure, intense work culture, and retirement insecurity. When families feel squeezed from both ends — ageing parents and young children — having more children becomes a financial and psychological risk,” added another. /TISG
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