Resale prices of Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats increased by 1.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, marking a continued but slower pace of growth, according to flash estimates released by the HDB on 1 April.
This rise is down from the 2.6 per cent increase in the final quarter of 2024 and below the average quarterly growth of 2.3 per cent recorded throughout 2024.
The first quarter of 2025 marks the 20th consecutive quarter of positive HDB resale price growth. If the flat (0.0%) growth recorded in the first quarter of 2020 is also included, the streak extends to 23 quarters of price increase.
This sets a new record, surpassing the previous longest streak of 20 quarters from the fourth quarter of 1991 to the fourth quarter of 1996, according to an earlier report by OrangeTee Group.
Desmond Lee, Minister for National Development, said the moderation in growth could be attributed to the sustained supply of Build-to-Order (BTO) flats and the largest-ever Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise held in February 2025.
Lee noted in a Facebook post that there were “early signs of moderation in price growth” for both public and private housing markets.
Transaction volume in the resale market also fell. HDB reported 6,392 resale flat transactions up to 27 March 2025, representing a 7.7 per cent decline compared to the same period last year.
Lee acknowledged that supply tightness still exists, due in part to fewer flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in recent years — a result of COVID-19-related construction delays.
However, this trend is expected to reverse. The number of flats reaching MOP is projected to rise significantly from 8,000 in 2025 to 13,500 in 2026, and further to 19,500 in 2028.
“This means that more resale flats are entering the market soon, and the supply tightness will ease,” Lee said.
The government is also ramping up the supply of new flats. More than 50,000 BTO units are set to be launched between 2025 and 2027, as previously announced.
Ku Swee Yong, chief executive officer of International Property Advisor, expressed concern about the sustainability of rising resale prices.
“My first concern is that BTO prices could trend up along with resale flat prices given that the land valuations are higher. This would mean that taxpayers would need to provide home buyers with more grants to maintain affordability for the young families.”
“Secondly, these families are forgoing CPF interest earnings while they pay interest expenses over the course of the loan terms. I worry that the current buyers who take on more than half a million dollars of mortgages and repay with their CPF funds will not have sufficient for retirement in 25 to 30 years’ time.”
Veteran financial commentator Leong Sze Hian highlighted the implications of a past policy change requiring private property downgraders to wait 15 months before purchasing an HDB resale flat, unless aged 55 or above.
“The fact that a policy change was made… may indicate that more may be downgrading. Also, this may be reflected in the HDB resale price increase, being higher than the private property price increase in recent years. Could it also be that the increase in housing grants for HDB resale flats may have fuelled the price increase?”
In the private housing market, prices rose by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, according to flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).
This is a slowdown from the 2.3 per cent rise recorded in the final quarter of 2024.
Prices of non-landed properties also rose by 0.6 per cent, a significant moderation from the 3.0 per cent increase in the previous quarter. Prices increased by 0.6 per cent in the Core Central Region and 1.0 per cent in the Rest of Central Region, while growth in the Outside Central Region slowed to 0.3 per cent.
Landed property prices rose by 0.6 per cent, reversing a 0.1 per cent decline in the previous quarter.
The total volume of private home sale transactions fell by 15 per cent from the previous quarter, indicating a cooling across both public and private segments.
URA noted that the figures are based on transaction prices submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers up to mid-March. The finalised data will be released on 25 April 2025.
To meet housing demand and maintain market stability, the government has increased private housing supply under the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme. In the first half of 2025, a total of 8,505 units will be made available, including 5,030 on the Confirmed List — nearly 60 per cent higher than the average supply from 2021 to 2023.
URA also advised households to remain financially prudent. Although mortgage rates have eased since the decline in US interest rates in late 2024, they remain elevated compared to the past decade. Singapore’s GDP growth is expected to moderate in 2025 amid ongoing global trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
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