After weeks of voting machine failures, fraud accusations and noisy claims of foreign meddling, Hondurans are still waiting to learn who won the country’s Nov 30 presidential election. But while ballots remain contested at home, one result is already rippling far beyond Honduras’s borders —Taiwan may be on its way back.
A change of heart in Tegucigalpa
Both leading candidates have promised the same dramatic move if they take office—cutting diplomatic ties with Beijing and reopening relations with Taipei. If that happens, it will reverse a decision taken just two years ago, when President Xiomara Castro abruptly ended Honduras’s 82-year relationship with Taiwan in favour of China.
At the time, the switch was billed as a pragmatic bet on economic opportunity. Honduras became the ninth country in a decade to abandon Taiwan, joining a wave of nations drawn by China’s financial power and political pressure. But today, that gamble is widely viewed as a mistake.
“For Honduras, there has been absolutely no benefit,” says Liberal Party candidate Salvador Nasralla. His rival, Nasry Asfura, the former mayor of Tegucigalpa, puts it more bluntly: “We were 100 times better off with Taiwan.” Asfura received a late endorsement from US President Donald Trump, a reminder that the election is about more than domestic politics.
Taiwan, meanwhile, has been steadily losing ground. Once recognised by dozens of countries, it now has just 12 diplomatic allies left, after years of Beijing pushing governments to choose between Taipei and the world’s second-largest economy.
When the promises didn’t pay off
For many in Central America and the Caribbean, the economic payoff that was meant to justify recognition of China has failed to arrive. In Honduras, shrimp farmers were hit hard after exports collapsed. China had promised to replace Taiwan, which once bought 40% of Honduras’s shrimp. It never did.
In Panama, splashy Chinese-backed projects—new ports, bridges and infrastructure—have stalled or been cancelled outright. Elsewhere, scandals have deepened public scepticism. In Panama, leaked messages suggested close business ties between Chinese diplomats and a former president’s family. In Paraguay, an undercover investigation captured claims of bribes linked to efforts to establish relations with Beijing.
China denies wrongdoing, but the damage has been done. Diplomats from Taiwan’s remaining allies describe relentless pressure, offers of vast investment, sudden bans on Chinese tourism, and even intimidating visits by Chinese officials at the United Nations. During the pandemic, Guatemala was reportedly urged to switch recognition in exchange for vaccines.
Still, the tide may be turning. Lawmakers from Panama recently travelled to Taipei to explore trade and political ties. In St Vincent and the Grenadines, the newly elected prime minister quietly dropped his party’s long-standing pledge to recognise China.
For officials in Taipei, these shifts feel like belated validation. When Honduras broke ties in 2023, it claimed Taiwan had refused to renegotiate $600m in debt or increase aid. Taiwan responded by accusing Honduras of demanding more than $2bn and warned it not to “quench your thirst with poison.”
Power politics, Trump-style
Behind many of these decisions looms Washington. Analysts say the calculation around China has changed, especially since Trump’s return to the White House. “The US is pushing back hard against China in the region,” says Evan Ellis of the US Army War College. “Countries that stick with Taiwan expect to be rewarded.”
Trump’s approach has been unmistakably transactional. In the space of a week, he endorsed a Honduran presidential candidate and pardoned a former Honduran president convicted of drug trafficking. He has also threatened to “take back” the Panama Canal from what he claims is Chinese control.
Panama responded by pulling out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and launching legal action against Chinese-run ports at either end of the canal. US companies now appear well-positioned to benefit. When Chinese officials reportedly pressured Panamanian lawmakers to cancel their Taipei visit, the US ambassador stepped in with public backing.
With American warships stationed off Venezuela and Washington’s focus sharpening on the Caribbean, small nations are taking note. “It’s not the moment for a small Caribbean island, close to major US military operations, to be flipping to China,” Ellis says.
For Honduras, still caught in electoral limbo, the bigger decision may already be taking shape. Long before the final vote count is announced, the country appears to be reconsidering where its future—and its loyalties—really lie.
