WASHINGTON: Former President Donald Trump’s move to impose what he described as a “total and complete blockade” on sanctioned oil tankers going in and out of Venezuela has dramatically raised the pressure on President Nicolás Maduro. But while the action is aimed squarely at Caracas, its impact may stretch far beyond the Caribbean—reaching all the way to the Taiwan Strait.
At its core, the order targets Venezuela’s economic lifeline. Oil sales keep Maduro’s government afloat and cutting them off strikes at the heart of his power. Almost immediately, though, the decision sparked uncomfortable questions: Does a blockade like this cross the line into an act of war under international law?
Those questions aren’t academic. In Washington and across the Indo-Pacific, military planners have long worried about a far more dangerous scenario—China using a naval blockade to pressure Taiwan into accepting Beijing’s control. And while China sees Taiwan as its own territory and doesn’t feel bound by international legal arguments, analysts warn that a U.S. blockade of Venezuela hands Beijing an opportunity it could later exploit.
“If the U.S. blockades another country to force political change, China can point to that and justify coercive measures against Taiwan on ‘security’ grounds,” said Craig Singleton, a China expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The situations aren’t the same legally, but the propaganda advantage is real.”
In global politics, Singleton noted, perception can matter as much as law. When Washington blurs definitions, it weakens its moral authority to call out similar behaviour elsewhere.
Turning up the heat on Maduro — and sending a message abroad
The blockade follows a broader U.S. military push against Venezuela, including more than two dozen strikes on boats the Trump administration says were tied to drug trafficking networks linked to senior Maduro officials. Maduro, for his part, claims the U.S. is trying to topple his government and seize control of Venezuela’s vast oil wealth—the largest proven reserves in the world.
A White House official defended the policy, saying Trump was ready to use “every element of American power” to stop drugs from reaching the United States, though the official avoided addressing concerns about Taiwan.
China, Venezuela’s biggest oil customer, quickly rallied behind Maduro. Beijing condemned what it called “unilateralism and bullying,” language analysts say, which could easily resurface if China moves against Taiwan in the future.
A playbook in the making?
For years, China has hinted that a blockade—short of a full invasion—could be a key tool in any attempt to bring Taiwan under its control. Chinese forces have practised blockade-style drills around the island with growing frequency, often describing them as routine law enforcement or quarantine operations.
Taiwan sees things very differently. Its leaders have warned that any blockade would be an act of war and would send shockwaves through the global economy. The United States, which opposes any unilateral change to Taiwan’s status, has backed that position.
Still, experts worry that U.S. actions in Venezuela could make it harder to rally international support if China ever puts Taiwan under siege. “The U.S. is damaging the strength and credibility of the rules,” said Isaac Kardon of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “That makes it harder to rely on international law to restrain other powers.”
Kardon warned that China could cite Venezuela as justification for stopping ships bound for Taiwan—especially those carrying critical supplies like natural gas. “It all just muddies the waters,” he said.
Legal grey zones and military strain
International law allows blockades only under narrow wartime conditions. Milena Sterio, a maritime law expert at Cleveland State University, said a full blockade of Venezuela would likely be illegal unless the U.S. could clearly show it was in an armed conflict.
“If the U.S. does this, it undercuts our ability to criticise China for doing the same thing to Taiwan,” she said. “The rules are supposed to apply to everyone.”
There are also practical risks. Keeping U.S. naval forces deployed in the Caribbean for an extended period could stretch resources thin and make it harder for the military to respond quickly to a crisis in Asia.
Not everyone is convinced the damage will be lasting. Michael Hunzeker of George Mason University said U.S. allies would ultimately base their decisions in a Taiwan crisis on strategic interests, not legal consistency. Any references to Venezuela, he argued, would mostly serve as political cover for staying out.
Still, as Washington tightens the screws on Caracas, the consequences may not stay confined to Latin America. In an increasingly interconnected world, actions taken in one corner can reshape the balance of power in another—sometimes in ways no one fully intended.
