When Vladimir Putin last walked the corridors of power in Delhi four years ago, the world felt like a different place. His whirlwind Covid-era visit was short but warm, a reaffirmation of his personal rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Few could have predicted that just weeks later, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine would turn Putin into a near-outsider on the global stage, grounding his international travel and redrawing diplomatic boundaries.
Today, he returns to India under very different circumstances. With Donald Trump back in the White House—swinging tariffs like sledgehammers and throwing Washington’s relationship with Delhi off balance—Putin’s presence in the Indian capital feels unusually weighty.
A visit that speaks louder than words
For Putin, simply showing up is the message. After years of being shunned by much of the West, the Russian leader wants the world to see he’s not hiding. Russian troops are advancing in Ukraine, Moscow has dismissed Washington’s latest peace plan, and Putin steps into Delhi with visible confidence.
As Petr Topychkanov from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute puts it, the importance lies “primarily in the fact that it is happening at all.” In other words, Moscow no longer feels boxed in by fears of isolation.
India’s careful tightrope walk
India, meanwhile, is juggling one of its most complex strategic environments in decades. An unpredictable, inward-focused US; a Russia weakened but still vital; and a China that is more powerful—and more confrontational—than ever.
Delhi’s sensitivity was on full display when European diplomats publicly urged India to rethink its stance on Russia. India pushed back sharply, calling the move inappropriate. The timing was impossible to miss: just as Trump accused India of funding Moscow’s war through oil purchases and slapped a harsh 25% tariff on Indian goods.
All of this has nudged India back into what analysts call “hedging mode”—keeping all doors open, weighing every relationship, and avoiding getting cornered. Modi’s recent photo-op with Putin and China’s Xi Jinping ruffled feathers in Washington, but for Delhi, it was all part of the diplomatic dance.
The China factor: The real driver of India–Russia ties
For all the talk of “friendship,” India’s bond with Russia is anchored in strategic necessity. China towers over every Indian calculation. For decades, Moscow has served as a steady continental counterweight, the one player India hoped could restrain Beijing when needed.
However, now, with Russia drifting closer to China in their “no-limits” partnership, Delhi is uneasy. That worry has pushed India to diversify its defence supplies: Russia once accounted for about 70% of India’s military imports; today that figure has fallen below 40%. Still, India is not walking away from Russian equipment entirely—systems like the S-400 and the Su-57 remain too critical.
India’s goal is balance: buy enough from Russia to keep the relationship alive, but not so much that Moscow could leave India stranded under Chinese pressure.
Energy, sanctions, and the search for stability
Energy will be one of the biggest talking points. Despite sanctions, Putin insists he wants deeper economic ties with India, but India’s oil strategy has grown more complicated. Western sanctions have made private Indian refiners nervous about Russian crude, and as a conciliatory gesture toward Washington, India has quietly agreed to buy more American oil and gas.
The Kremlin, unsurprisingly, is brushing off concerns. Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged some “obstacles” but said Russia’s energy flows to India would continue—perhaps with small dips, but nothing more.
As the two leaders meet, Ukraine will inevitably hover in the background. Still, analysts say Modi can do little beyond repeating calls for peace. He can speak to both Putin and President Zelensky, but he doesn’t hold enough leverage to change the course of the war.
For now, the world is watching two leaders navigate an uncertain moment. Alliances are shifting. Power is in flux. And both Putin and Modi are trying to carve out space—quietly but deliberately—in a world that feels increasingly unpredictable.
